Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 37.38%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (6.57%). The likeliest Vizela win was 1-0 (10.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.