Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 49.53%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 25.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.