Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Portimonense in this match.