Arouca
Benfica
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Tondela
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Chaves
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 6
Sep 24, 2023 at 3.30pm UK
Estadio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira
Estrela Amadora

Chaves
2 - 2
Estrela Amadora

Hernandez (85'), Pinho (90+4')
Nogueira (33'), Guimaraes (42'), Victor Ferreira de Jesus (51'), Vitoria (72')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Cordeiro (45+1'), Jaba (70')
Mansur (36'), Genezio (56'), Gaspar (90+10')
Mansur (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Chaves and Estrela Amadora, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chaves

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Boavista 4-1 Chaves
Monday, September 18 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Estrela Amadora

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 0-1 Porto
Friday, September 15 at 7.15pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 46.59%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.

Result
ChavesDrawEstrela Amadora
46.59% (-0.10299999999999 -0.1)24.83% (0.024999999999999 0.02)28.58% (0.077999999999999 0.08)
Both teams to score 55.34% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.5% (-0.067 -0.07)47.5% (0.067 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.29% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)69.71% (0.062999999999988 0.06)
Chaves Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.55% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)20.45% (0.071000000000002 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.1% (-0.115 -0.12)52.9% (0.114 0.11)
Estrela Amadora Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.56% (0.022000000000006 0.02)30.44% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.35% (0.027999999999999 0.03)66.65% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Chaves 46.59%
    Estrela Amadora 28.58%
    Draw 24.83%
ChavesDrawEstrela Amadora
1-0 @ 9.88% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.33% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.84% (-0.013000000000001 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.94% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.15% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.94% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.96% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.65% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.17% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 46.59%
1-1 @ 11.75% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.23% (0.018 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.55% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-3 @ 1.16% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.83%
0-1 @ 7.4% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
1-2 @ 6.99% (0.013000000000001 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.4% (0.017 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.77% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.2% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.75% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 28.58%