Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.73%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Moreirense in this match.