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Arouca
Benfica
Boavista
Braga
Casa Pia
Chaves
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Portimonense
Porto
Rio Ave
Farense logo
Sporting Lisbon
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Vizela
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 22
Feb 18, 2024 at 3.30pm UK
Campo do Cevadeiro
Arouca

Casa Pia
1 - 0
Arouca

Clayton (74')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Montero (64'), Simao (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Casa Pia and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Casa Pia

All competitions
Last Game: Rio Ave 1-0 Casa Pia
Sunday, February 11 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Arouca

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Arouca 3-2 Porto
Monday, February 12 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Casa Pia 1-3 Arouca

 Arouca have turned a corner in recent weeks and will be backing themselves against an out-of-sorts Casa Pia side. While we expect the hosts to put up a fight, we predict that the Arouquenses will pick up all three points at the Estadio Pina Manique. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.

Result
Casa PiaDrawArouca
30.32% (-0.713 -0.71) 27.38% (0.016000000000002 0.02) 42.3% (0.695 0.7)
Both teams to score 48.41% (-0.338 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.08% (-0.293 -0.29)56.91% (0.291 0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.17% (-0.236 -0.24)77.83% (0.23399999999999 0.23)
Casa Pia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.94% (-0.675 -0.67)34.05% (0.67299999999999 0.67)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.26% (-0.734 -0.73)70.74% (0.733 0.73)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.41% (0.23399999999999 0.23)26.58% (-0.238 -0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.19% (0.308 0.31)61.8% (-0.312 -0.31)
Score Analysis
    Casa Pia 30.32%
    Arouca 42.29%
    Draw 27.38%
Casa PiaDrawArouca
1-0 @ 9.75% (-0.071 -0.07)
2-1 @ 6.96% (-0.133 -0.13)
2-0 @ 5.25% (-0.136 -0.14)
3-1 @ 2.5% (-0.095 -0.09)
3-0 @ 1.89% (-0.085 -0.09)
3-2 @ 1.66% (-0.052 -0.05)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 30.32%
1-1 @ 12.92%
0-0 @ 9.05% (0.1 0.1)
2-2 @ 4.61% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 27.38%
0-1 @ 11.99% (0.21 0.21)
1-2 @ 8.56% (0.052999999999999 0.05)
0-2 @ 7.95% (0.192 0.19)
1-3 @ 3.78% (0.048 0.05)
0-3 @ 3.51% (0.108 0.11)
2-3 @ 2.04% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.25% (0.024 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.16% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 42.29%

How you voted: Casa Pia vs Arouca

Casa Pia
12.0%
Draw
16.0%
Arouca
72.0%
25
Head to Head
Sep 17, 2023 3.30pm
Gameweek 5
Arouca
0-1
Casa Pia

Cristo (44'), Montero (82')
Cardoso (90+1')
Fernandes (11'), Mukendi (83'), Cardoso (90+3')
> Preview
Feb 25, 2023 3.30pm
Gameweek 22
Arouca
2-0
Casa Pia
Mujica (81', 90+3')
> Preview
Sep 4, 2022 3.30pm
Gameweek 5
Casa Pia
0-0
Arouca
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon31263289296081
2Benfica31244371254676
3Porto31196657263163
4Braga31195764442062
5Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes31186746321460
6MoreirenseMoreirense31137113234-246
7AroucaArouca311361253421145
8FamalicaoFamalicao31812113339-636
9Casa Pia3198143344-1135
10SC FarenseFarense3197154244-234
11Estoril PraiaEstoril3196164652-633
12Rio AveRio Ave3151793339-632
13Gil Vicente3188153950-1132
14BoavistaBoavista3179153557-2230
15Estrela Amadora31611143249-1729
16PortimonensePortimonense3177173466-3228
17ChavesChaves3158183165-3423
18Vizela31410173063-3322
> Primeira Liga Full Table


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