/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F10%2Fcaslog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F28%2Farolog.png)
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Clayton
74'
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Francisco Montero
64'
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David Simao
71'
Casa Pia vs Arouca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F36%2Farouca.jpg)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
Result
Casa Pia
30.32%
▼
(-0.72)
Draw
27.38%
▲
(+0.02)
Arouca
42.3%
▲
(+0.70)
Both Teams to Score:
48.41%
▼
(-0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5
43.08%
▼
(-0.30)
Under 2.5
56.91%
▲
(+0.30)
Over 3.5
22.17%
▼
(-0.24)
Under 3.5
77.83%
▲
(+0.24)
Over 4.5
9.61%
▼
(-0.15)
Under 4.5
90.39%
▲
(+0.14)
Casa Pia Goals
Over 0.5
65.94%
▼
(-0.68)
Under 0.5
34.05%
▲
(+0.68)
Over 1.5
29.26%
▼
(-0.74)
Under 1.5
70.74%
▲
(+0.74)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5
73.41%
▲
(+0.24)
Under 0.5
26.58%
▼
(-0.24)
Over 1.5
38.19%
▲
(+0.31)
Under 1.5
61.8%
▼
(-0.32)
Score analysis
Casa Pia
30.32%
Draw
27.38%
Arouca
42.29%
Casa Pia
1-0
@
9.75%
▼
(-0.08)
2-1 @ 6.96% ▼ (-0.14)
2-0 @ 5.25% ▼ (-0.14)
3-1 @ 2.5% ▼ (-0.10)
3-0 @ 1.89% ▼ (-0.09)
3-2 @ 1.66% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 30.32%
2-1 @ 6.96% ▼ (-0.14)
2-0 @ 5.25% ▼ (-0.14)
3-1 @ 2.5% ▼ (-0.10)
3-0 @ 1.89% ▼ (-0.09)
3-2 @ 1.66% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 30.32%
Draw
1-1
@
12.92%
0-0 @ 9.05% ▲ (+0.10)
2-2 @ 4.61% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 27.38%
0-0 @ 9.05% ▲ (+0.10)
2-2 @ 4.61% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 27.38%
Arouca
0-1
@
11.99%
▲
(+0.22)
1-2 @ 8.56% ▲ (+0.06)
0-2 @ 7.95% ▲ (+0.20)
1-3 @ 3.78% ▲ (+0.05)
0-3 @ 3.51% ▲ (+0.11)
2-3 @ 2.04% ▼ (-0.02)
1-4 @ 1.25% ▲ (+0.03)
0-4 @ 1.16% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 42.29%
1-2 @ 8.56% ▲ (+0.06)
0-2 @ 7.95% ▲ (+0.20)
1-3 @ 3.78% ▲ (+0.05)
0-3 @ 3.51% ▲ (+0.11)
2-3 @ 2.04% ▼ (-0.02)
1-4 @ 1.25% ▲ (+0.03)
0-4 @ 1.16% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 42.29%