Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 58.36%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 19.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.9%) and 0-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Moreirense win it was 2-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.