Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 47.24%. A win for Braga had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.26%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Braga win was 2-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.