Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.19%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 29.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (8%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-0 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
Result | ||
Estoril Praia | Draw | Moreirense |
29.5% ( -0.24) | 26.31% ( -0.07) | 44.19% ( 0.29) |
Both teams to score 51.21% ( 0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.86% ( 0.14) | 53.14% ( -0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.29% ( 0.12) | 74.71% ( -0.13) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.31% ( -0.1) | 32.68% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.76% ( -0.11) | 69.23% ( 0.1) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.08% ( 0.2) | 23.92% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.86% ( 0.3) | 58.13% ( -0.3) |
Score Analysis |
Estoril Praia | Draw | Moreirense |
1-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 4.89% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.86% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.82% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.58% Total : 29.5% | 1-1 @ 12.5% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.3% | 0-1 @ 11.18% 1-2 @ 8.95% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 8% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 4.27% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 3.81% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.36% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.71% Total : 44.19% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 24 | 44 | 73 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 57 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 32 |
11 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 62 | -33 | 21 |
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