Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 53.26%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 22.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.88%) and 1-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (7.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.