Primeira Liga | Gameweek 24

Mar 1, 2024 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Chaves
1 - 5
Arouca

Guzzo (16')
Pius (38')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Cristo (35'), Mujica (40', 49'), Jason (47'), Sylla (53')
Sylla (42'), Cristo (44')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Chaves and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chaves

All competitions

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 1-1 Chaves
Saturday, February 24 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Arouca 3-2 Famalicao
Friday, February 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
Chaves	Draw	Arouca
31.66% ( -0.02)	26.22% ( -0.01)	42.12% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 52.51% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.06% (

0.03)

51.94% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.32% (

0.03)

73.68% (

-0.03)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.47%

30.53%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.25% (

66.75% (

-0)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.58% (

0.03)

24.42% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.15% (

0.04)

58.84% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Chaves 31.66%

Arouca 42.12%

Draw 26.22%

Chaves	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 8.85% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.4% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.93% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.08% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0) Other @ 3.11% Total : 31.66%	1-1 @ 12.47% 0-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.22%	0-1 @ 10.51% 1-2 @ 8.79% ( 0) 0-2 @ 7.41% ( 0) 1-3 @ 4.13% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.46% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0) Other @ 2.66% Total : 42.12%