Primeira Liga | Gameweek 33

May 12, 2024 at 6pm UK

Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica
5 - 0
Arouca

di Maria (25' pen.), Kokcu (32' pen.), Silva (42', 46'), Tengstedt (58')
Luis (36'), di Maria (59')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Esgaio (28'), Simao (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Benfica and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Famalicao 2-0 Benfica
Sunday, May 5 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Arouca 0-0 Estrela Amadora
Sunday, May 5 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 72.59%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 11.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 3-0 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.45%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-2 (3.33%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Arouca
72.59% ( -2.77)	16.15% ( 1.53)	11.26% ( 1.24)

Both teams to score 54.27% (

-1.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.12% (

-4.03)

33.88% (

4.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.27% (

-4.72)

55.73% (

4.73)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.89% (

-1.49)

8.11% (

1.49)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.51% (

-3.89)

28.48% (

3.89)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.06% (

-0.67)

40.94% (

0.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.49% (

-0.6)

77.5% (

0.6)

Score Analysis

Benfica 72.58%

Arouca 11.26%

Draw 16.15%

Benfica	Draw	Arouca
2-0 @ 10.47% ( 0.64) 2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.42) 3-0 @ 8.77% ( -0.12) 1-0 @ 8.34% ( 1.1) 3-1 @ 7.83% ( -0.25) 4-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.53) 4-1 @ 4.92% ( -0.57) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.18) 5-0 @ 2.77% ( -0.51) 5-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.51) 4-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.3) 6-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.32) 5-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.25) 6-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.31) Other @ 3.14% Total : 72.58%	1-1 @ 7.45% ( 0.87) 2-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.66) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.16% Total : 16.15%	1-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.33) 0-1 @ 2.97% ( 0.54) 0-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.22) 2-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.42% Total : 11.26%