Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 31.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Arouca |
| 31.74% ( | 25.23% ( | 43.04% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.77% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.28% ( | 47.72% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.09% ( | 69.91% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.62% ( | 28.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.88% ( | 64.12% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.87% ( | 22.13% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.49% ( | 55.51% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 7.91% ( 2-1 @ 7.51% ( 2-0 @ 4.98% ( 3-1 @ 3.16% ( 3-2 @ 2.38% 3-0 @ 2.09% ( 4-1 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.71% Total : 31.74% | 1-1 @ 11.93% 0-0 @ 6.28% ( 2-2 @ 5.67% ( 3-3 @ 1.2% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.23% | 0-1 @ 9.47% ( 1-2 @ 9% ( 0-2 @ 7.14% ( 1-3 @ 4.52% ( 0-3 @ 3.59% ( 2-3 @ 2.85% ( 1-4 @ 1.71% ( 0-4 @ 1.35% ( 2-4 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 2.33% Total : 43.04% |