Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 59.93%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 18.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.96%) and 0-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.07%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.