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Europa League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 14, 2024 at 8pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Sporting Lisbon

Atalanta
2 - 1
Sporting Lisbon

Lookman (46'), Scamacca (59')
Holm (78')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Goncalves (33')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Atalanta BC and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Juventus 2-2 Atalanta
Sunday, March 10 at 5pm in Serie A

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Arouca 0-3 Sporting Lisbon
Sunday, March 10 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 38.64%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 36.37% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Atalanta BC in this match.

Result
Atalanta BCDrawSporting Lisbon
38.64% (0.095999999999997 0.1)24.98% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)36.37% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
Both teams to score 57.79% (0.069999999999993 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.39% (0.093000000000004 0.09)45.6% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.06% (0.088000000000001 0.09)67.93% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)
Atalanta BC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.62% (0.091999999999999 0.09)23.37% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.65% (0.134 0.13)57.34% (-0.133 -0.13)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.41% (0.0020000000000095 0)24.58% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.92% (0.0020000000000024 0)59.08% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    Atalanta BC 38.65%
    Sporting Lisbon 36.37%
    Draw 24.97%
Atalanta BCDrawSporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 8.52% (0.013 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.35% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.07% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.13% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.94% (0.012 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.9% (0.012 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.5% (0.01 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.07% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 38.65%
1-1 @ 11.71% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.98% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.75% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.35% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.97%
1-2 @ 8.22% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-1 @ 8.06% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-2 @ 5.66% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.85% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.8% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 2.65% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.35% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 0.98% (0.001 0)
0-4 @ 0.93% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 36.37%

How you voted: Atalanta vs Sporting Lisbon

Atalanta BC
72.3%
Sporting Lisbon
27.7%
184
Head to Head
Mar 6, 2024 5.45pm
Round of 16 1st Leg
Sporting Lisbon
1-1
Atalanta
Paulinho (17')
Edwards (36')
Scamacca (39')
Hien (14'), Scalvini (49'), Djimsiti (56')
> Preview
Nov 30, 2023 5.45pm
Group Stage
Atalanta
1-1
Sporting Lisbon
Scamacca (23')
Lookman (38'), Scalvini (42'), Kolasinac (43'), de Roon (62')
Edwards (56')
Inacio (11'), Reis (90+4'), Morita (90+1')
> Preview
Oct 5, 2023 5.45pm
Group Stage
Sporting Lisbon
1-2
Atalanta
Gyokeres (76' pen.)
Goncalves (84'), Braganca (90+2')
Scalvini (33'), Ruggeri (43')
Djimsiti (51'), Toloi (60'), Kolasinac (76'), Scamacca (90+2')
> Preview
rhs 2.0


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