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Serie A | Gameweek 26
Feb 25, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Atalanta logo

AC Milan
1 - 1
Atalanta

Leao (3')
Pioli (40'), Leao (45+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Koopmeiners (42' pen.)
de Roon (44'), Holm (45+3'), Lookman (56'), Ederson (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Atalanta BC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Rennes 3-2 AC Milan
Thursday, February 22 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Atalanta 3-0 Sassuolo
Saturday, February 17 at 7.45pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 2-2 Atalanta BC

Atalanta (10) and Milan (12) are the only two Serie A sides to have scored at least 10 goals via substitutes this season, so late inspiration could well come from the bench in a close-fought contest. The points may be split at the final whistle, which would maintain the Rossoneri's grip on third spot. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawAtalanta BC
44.52% (0.254 0.25) 26.25% (0.0090000000000003 0.01) 29.23% (-0.266 -0.27)
Both teams to score 51.24% (-0.181 -0.18)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.97% (-0.165 -0.16)53.03% (0.163 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.38% (-0.14 -0.14)74.62% (0.14100000000001 0.14)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.28% (0.052000000000007 0.05)23.71% (-0.052 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.16% (0.073 0.07)57.84% (-0.072999999999993 -0.07)
Atalanta BC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.17% (-0.282 -0.28)32.83% (0.282 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.6% (-0.317 -0.32)69.4% (0.31699999999999 0.32)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 44.51%
    Atalanta BC 29.23%
    Draw 26.24%
AC MilanDrawAtalanta BC
1-0 @ 11.2% (0.09 0.09)
2-1 @ 8.98% (0.016 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.06% (0.076 0.08)
3-1 @ 4.31% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.87% (0.043 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.4% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.55% (0.008 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.39% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 44.51%
1-1 @ 12.47%
0-0 @ 7.79% (0.05 0.05)
2-2 @ 5% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 26.24%
0-1 @ 8.67% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.95% (-0.052 -0.05)
0-2 @ 4.83% (-0.043 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.58% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.86% (-0.025 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.79% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 29.23%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Atalanta

AC Milan
44.4%
Draw
30.2%
Atalanta BC
25.4%
126
Head to Head
Jan 10, 2024 8pm
Quarter-Finals
AC Milan
1-2
Atalanta
Leao (45')
Hernandez (57'), Leao (80')
Mirante (90+7')
Koopmeiners (45+2', 59')
Piero Gasperini (38'), Ederson (90')
Piero Gasperini (38')
Dec 9, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 15
Atalanta
3-2
AC Milan
Lookman (38', 55'), Muriel (90+5')
Ederson (72')
Giroud (45+3'), Jovic (80')
Reijnders (71'), Calabria (80'), Jovic (88'), Bennacer (90+2')
Calabria (90+3')
Feb 26, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 24
AC Milan
2-0
Atalanta
Musso (25' og.), Messias (86')
Aug 21, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
Atalanta
1-1
AC Milan
Malinovskyi (29')
Toloi (16'), Hateboer (48'), Djimsiti (78'), de Roon (90+6')
Bennacer (68')
Pioli (23'), Rebic (45+1'), Tonali (75'), Hernandez (78')
May 15, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 37
AC Milan
2-0
Atalanta
Leao (56'), Hernandez (75')
Giroud (44'), Kessie (67'), Bennacer (90+2')

Koopmeiners (53'), Malinovskyi (87')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter Milan32265177176083
2AC Milan32216563372669
3Juventus331810547262164
4Bologna321611545252059
5Roma31167856352155
6Lazio33164134235752
7Atalanta BCAtalanta311561057362151
8Napoli331310105041949
9Torino32111293129245
10Fiorentina31128114336744
11Monza321110113441-743
12Genoa33912123540-539
13CagliariCagliari33711153656-2032
14Lecce32711142748-2132
15Hellas VeronaHellas Verona33710163144-1331
16Empoli3387182648-2231
17Udinese32416123048-1828
18FrosinoneFrosinone3269174063-2327
19SassuoloSassuolo3268183962-2326
20Salernitana3229212668-4215


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