Serie A Gameweek 24
AC Milan
Feb 11, 2024 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Napoli
  • Theo Hernandez 25' goal
  • Theo Hernandez 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Juan Jesus 85'

AC Milan vs Napoli - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Last game
Feb 3, 2024 5.00pm
Frosinone 2 - 3 AC Milan
Goals scored
76
Top scorer
Olivier Giroud

Napoli

All competitions
Last game
Feb 4, 2024 2.00pm
Napoli 2 - 1 Hellas Verona
Goals scored
55
Top scorer
Victor Osimhen

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AC Milan in this match.

Result

AC Milan 40.62% ▼ (-0.19)
Draw 25.42% ▲ (+0.08)
Napoli 33.96% ▲ (+0.12)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.84% ▼ (-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5 52.04% ▼ (-0.31)
Under 2.5 47.95% ▲ (+0.30)
Over 3.5 29.87% ▼ (-0.28)
Under 3.5 70.13% ▲ (+0.28)
Over 4.5 14.58% ▼ (-0.20)
Under 4.5 85.42% ▲ (+0.19)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5 76.59% ▼ (-0.23)
Under 0.5 23.41% ▲ (+0.23)
Over 1.5 42.59% ▼ (-0.33)
Under 1.5 57.4% ▲ (+0.33)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5 72.91% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 0.5 27.09% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 1.5 37.53% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 1.5 62.47% ▲ (+0.10)

Score analysis

AC Milan 40.62%
Draw 25.42%
Napoli 33.96%
AC Milan
1-0 @ 9.21% ▲ (+0.06)
2-1 @ 8.73% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 6.69% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 4.23% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 3.24% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 2.76% ▼ (-0.04)
4-1 @ 1.53% ▼ (-0.03)
4-0 @ 1.17% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 40.62%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.02% ▲ (+0.04)
0-0 @ 6.34% ▲ (+0.08)
2-2 @ 5.7% ▼ (-0.03)
3-3 @ 1.2% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.42%
Napoli
0-1 @ 8.28% ▲ (+0.09)
1-2 @ 7.85% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 5.41% ▲ (+0.05)
1-3 @ 3.42% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.48% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.36% ▲ (+0.02)
1-4 @ 1.12% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 33.96%

Head to Head

Serie A Gameweek 10
Napoli
Oct 29, 2023 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 0 2
FT Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
AC Milan
  • Matteo Politano 50' goal
  • Natan 53' yellowcard
  • Giacomo Raspadori 63' goal
  • Giovanni Di Lorenzo 65' yellowcard
  • Alessandro Zanoli 86' yellowcard
  • Natan 89' redcard
  • goal Olivier Giroud 22'
  • goal Olivier Giroud 31'
  • yellowcard Tijjani Reijnders 55'
  • yellowcard Luka Romero 62'
  • yellowcard Yunus Musah 78'
Champions League
Napoli
Apr 18, 2023 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Napoli)
AC Milan
  • Victor Osimhen 90'+3' goal
  • goal Olivier Giroud 43'
Champions League
AC Milan
Apr 12, 2023 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Napoli
  • Ismael Bennacer 40' goal
Serie A Gameweek 28
Napoli
Apr 2, 2023 7.45pm
0
4
HT : 0 2
FT Stadio San Paolo, Napoli
AC Milan
  • goal Rafael Leao 17'
  • goal Brahim Diaz 25'
  • goal Rafael Leao 59'
  • goal Alexis Saelemaekers 67'
Serie A Gameweek 7
AC Milan
Sep 18, 2022 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Napoli
  • Olivier Giroud 69' goal
  • goal Matteo Politano 55'
  • goal Giovanni Simeone 78'
Serie A Gameweek 28
Napoli
Mar 6, 2022 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
AC Milan
  • Kalidou Koulibaly 24' yellowcard
  • Amir Rrahmani 37' yellowcard
  • Victor Osimhen 77' yellowcard
  • Adam Ounas 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Stefano Pioli 8'
  • yellowcard Olivier Giroud 39'
  • goal Olivier Giroud 49'
  • yellowcard Theo Hernandez 77'
  • yellowcard Mike Maignan 83'
  • yellowcard Alessandro Florenzi 90'+3'

Form Data

Frosinone 2 - 3 AC Milan
AC Milan 2 - 2 Bologna
Udinese 2 - 3 AC Milan
AC Milan 3 - 1 Roma
AC Milan 1 - 2 Atalanta
Empoli 0 - 3 AC Milan
Napoli 2 - 1 Hellas Verona
Lazio 0 - 0 Napoli
Napoli 0 - 1 Inter Milan
Napoli 3 - 0 Fiorentina
Napoli 2 - 1 Salernitana
Torino 3 - 0 Napoli