Serie A Gameweek 20
AC Milan
Jan 14, 2024 7.45pm
3
1
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Roma
  • Yacine Adli 11' goal
  • Olivier Giroud 56' goal
  • Simon Kjaer 71' yellowcard
  • Theo Hernandez 84' goal
  • Matteo Gabbia 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Gianluca Mancini 43'
  • yellowcard Bryan Cristante 56'
  • goal Leandro Paredes 69'
  • yellowcard Dean Huijsen 81'

AC Milan vs Roma - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Last game
Jan 7, 2024 11.30am
Empoli 0 - 3 AC Milan
Goals scored
76
Top scorer
Olivier Giroud

Roma

All competitions
Last game
Jan 7, 2024 7.45pm
Roma 1 - 1 Atalanta
Goals scored
65
Top scorer
Romelu Lukaku

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 49.19%. A win for Roma had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result

AC Milan 49.19% ▼ (-0.06)
Draw 25.05% ▲ (+0.02)
Roma 25.76% ▲ (+0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.4% ▼ (-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5 49.69% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 2.5 50.3% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 27.75% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 72.25% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 4.5 13.14% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 4.5 86.85% ▲ (+0.02)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5 79.53% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 0.5 20.47% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 1.5 47.06% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 1.5 52.93% ▲ (+0.05)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5 65.88% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 0.5 34.11% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 1.5 29.19% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 70.8% ▼ (-0.03)

Score analysis

AC Milan 49.19%
Draw 25.05%
Roma 25.76%
AC Milan
1-0 @ 11.07%
2-1 @ 9.45% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 8.79% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 5% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 4.65% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.69% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 1.98% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 1.84% ▼ (-0.01)
4-2 @ 1.07% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 49.19%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.91% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 6.98% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.08% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 1.07%
Total : 25.05%
Roma
0-1 @ 7.51% ▲ (+0.02)
1-2 @ 6.41% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 4.04% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.3% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.82% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.45% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 25.76%

Head to Head

Serie A Gameweek 3
Roma
Sep 1, 2023 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Stadio Olimpico
AC Milan
  • Leandro Paredes 69' yellowcard
  • Romelu Lukaku 85' yellowcard
  • Leonardo Spinazzola 90'+2' goal
  • goal Olivier Giroud 9'
  • yellowcard Fikayo Tomori 19'
  • yellowcard Ruben Loftus-Cheek 34'
  • goal Rafael Leao 48'
  • redcard Fikayo Tomori 61'
  • yellowcard Noah Okafor 90'+7'
Serie A Gameweek 32
Roma
Apr 29, 2023 5.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Olimpico
AC Milan
  • Tammy Abraham 90'+4' goal
  • goal Alexis Saelemaekers 90'+7'
Serie A Gameweek 17
AC Milan
Jan 8, 2023 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Roma
  • Pierre Kalulu 30' goal
  • Tommaso Pobega 77' goal
  • goal Ibanez 87'
  • goal Tammy Abraham 90'+3'
Serie A Gameweek 20
AC Milan
Jan 6, 2022 5.30pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT
Roma
  • Olivier Giroud 8' goal
  • Junior Messias 17' goal
  • Theo Hernandez 44' yellowcard
  • Rade Krunic 56' yellowcard
  • Rafael Leao 81' goal
  • yellowcard Tammy Abraham 7'
  • yellowcard Nicolo Zaniolo 18'
  • goal Tammy Abraham 40'
  • yellowcard Rick Karsdorp 44'
  • redcard Rick Karsdorp 74'
  • yellowcard Gianluca Mancini 84'
  • redcard Gianluca Mancini 90'+3'
Serie A Gameweek 11
Roma
Oct 31, 2021 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
AC Milan
  • Nicolo Zaniolo 7' yellowcard
  • Rick Karsdorp 24' yellowcard
  • Gianluca Mancini 49' yellowcard
  • Stephan El Shaarawy 90'+3' goal
  • Jordan Veretout 90'+7' yellowcard
  • goal Zlatan Ibrahimovic 26'
  • yellowcard Zlatan Ibrahimovic 27'
  • yellowcard Theo Hernandez 41'
  • goal Franck Kessie 57'
  • yellowcard Fikayo Tomori 65'
  • redcard Theo Hernandez 66'
  • yellowcard Davide Calabria 67'
  • yellowcard Olivier Giroud 77'
  • yellowcard Franck Kessie 81'
Serie A Gameweek 24
Roma
Feb 28, 2021 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
AC Milan
  • Federico Fazio 42' yellowcard
  • Jordan Veretout 50' goal
  • Henrikh Mkhitaryan 80' yellowcard
  • Lorenzo Pellegrini 89' yellowcard
  • goal Franck Kessie 42'
  • yellowcard Alexis Saelemaekers 46'
  • goal Ante Rebic 58'
  • yellowcard Davide Calabria 85'
  • yellowcard Samu Castillejo 90'+5'

Form Data

AC Milan 1 - 2 Atalanta
Empoli 0 - 3 AC Milan
AC Milan 4 - 1 Cagliari
AC Milan 1 - 0 Sassuolo
Salernitana 2 - 2 AC Milan
AC Milan 3 - 0 Monza
Lazio 1 - 0 Roma
Roma 1 - 1 Atalanta
Roma 2 - 1 Cremonese
Juventus 1 - 0 Roma
Roma 2 - 0 Napoli
Bologna 2 - 0 Roma