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Serie A | Gameweek 15
Dec 9, 2023 at 5pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Milan logo
Atalanta
3 - 2
AC Milan
Lookman (38', 55'), Muriel (90+5')
Ederson (72')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Giroud (45+3'), Jovic (80')
Reijnders (71'), Calabria (80'), Jovic (88'), Bennacer (90+2')
Calabria (90+3')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Torino 3-0 Atalanta
Monday, December 4 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 3-1 Frosinone
Saturday, December 2 at 7.45pm in Serie A

We said: Atalanta BC 1-1 AC Milan

Though Milan have had the edge over Atalanta in recent years, both teams are hampered by absences at the moment and may ultimately settle for a point. The hosts have been struggling to keep their back door shut, while the Rossoneri remain some way short of their best. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 46.69%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BCDrawAC Milan
46.69% (1.616 1.62) 25.73% (-0.113 -0.11) 27.58% (-1.505 -1.51)
Both teams to score 51.77% (-0.64599999999999 -0.65)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.16% (-0.373 -0.37)51.84% (0.371 0.37)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.4% (-0.325 -0.32)73.59% (0.32299999999999 0.32)
Atalanta BC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.81% (0.58600000000001 0.59)22.19% (-0.588 -0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.4% (0.874 0.87)55.6% (-0.875 -0.88)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.54% (-1.343 -1.34)33.46% (1.341 1.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.91% (-1.495 -1.5)70.09% (1.492 1.49)
Score Analysis
    Atalanta BC 46.68%
    AC Milan 27.58%
    Draw 25.72%
Atalanta BCDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 11.17% (0.35 0.35)
2-1 @ 9.21% (0.12 0.12)
2-0 @ 8.42% (0.409 0.41)
3-1 @ 4.62% (0.139 0.14)
3-0 @ 4.22% (0.275 0.28)
3-2 @ 2.53% (-0.015 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.74% (0.082 0.08)
4-0 @ 1.59% (0.129 0.13)
4-2 @ 0.95% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 46.68%
1-1 @ 12.23% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
0-0 @ 7.43% (0.109 0.11)
2-2 @ 5.04% (-0.12 -0.12)
3-3 @ 0.92% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 25.72%
0-1 @ 8.13% (-0.18 -0.18)
1-2 @ 6.7% (-0.281 -0.28)
0-2 @ 4.45% (-0.268 -0.27)
1-3 @ 2.45% (-0.197 -0.2)
2-3 @ 1.84% (-0.115 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.62% (-0.162 -0.16)
Other @ 2.39%
Total : 27.58%

How you voted: Atalanta vs AC Milan

Atalanta BC
29.0%
Draw
27.0%
AC Milan
44.0%
100
Head to Head
Feb 26, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 24
AC Milan
2-0
Atalanta
Musso (25' og.), Messias (86')
Aug 21, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
Atalanta
1-1
AC Milan
Malinovskyi (29')
Toloi (16'), Hateboer (48'), Djimsiti (78'), de Roon (90+6')
Bennacer (68')
Pioli (23'), Rebic (45+1'), Tonali (75'), Hernandez (78')
May 15, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 37
AC Milan
2-0
Atalanta
Leao (56'), Hernandez (75')
Giroud (44'), Kessie (67'), Bennacer (90+2')

Koopmeiners (53'), Malinovskyi (87')
Oct 3, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 7
Atalanta
2-3
AC Milan
Zapata (86' pen.), Pasalic (90+4')
de Roon (40')
Calabria (1'), Tonali (43'), Leao (78')
Diaz (42'), Tomori (52'), Messias (85'), Leao (88'), Pioli (90+4')
May 23, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 38
Atalanta
0-2
AC Milan

Freuler (47'), de Roon (69'), Toloi (86')
de Roon (90+1')
Kessie (43' pen., 90+2')
Mandzukic (82'), Krunic (90+1'), Dalot (90+2')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter Milan24203159124763
2Juventus25166338172154
3AC Milan25164549311852
4Bologna26139439231648
5Atalanta BCAtalanta24143747232445
6Roma25125845301541
7Lazio2512493126540
8Fiorentina2511593729838
9Napoli2410683328536
10Torino259972322136
11Monza269982730-336
12Genoa268992831-333
13Empoli2667132240-1825
14Lecce2559112439-1524
15Udinese2631492540-1523
16FrosinoneFrosinone2565143252-2023
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2648142336-1320
18SassuoloSassuolo2555153148-1720
19CagliariCagliari2547142346-2319
20Salernitana2627172053-3313

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