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Serie A | Gameweek 16
Dec 17, 2023 at 11.30am UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Monza

AC Milan
3 - 0
Monza

Reijnders (3'), Simic (41'), Okafor (76')
Reijnders (34')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Carboni (55'), Gagliardini (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Monza, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Newcastle 1-2 AC Milan
Wednesday, December 13 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Monza 1-0 Genoa
Sunday, December 10 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 1-1 Monza

Milan are the only team yet to draw a home match in Serie A this season, but that streak may come to an end on Sunday afternoon. A hangover from their Champions League exploits is a distinct possibility, while Monza are no pushovers and will be motivated by meeting their illustrious regional rivals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 55.06%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Monza had a probability of 22.34%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a Monza win it was 1-2 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawMonza
55.06% (2.179 2.18) 22.59% (-0.954 -0.95) 22.34% (-1.227 -1.23)
Both teams to score 56.51% (1.616 1.62)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.97% (2.876 2.88)43.03% (-2.878 -2.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.57% (2.786 2.79)65.43% (-2.788 -2.79)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.47% (1.801 1.8)15.52% (-1.802 -1.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.56% (3.254 3.25)44.44% (-3.256 -3.26)
Monza Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.9% (0.496 0.5)33.1% (-0.498 -0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.3% (0.542 0.54)69.7% (-0.544 -0.54)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 55.06%
    Monza 22.34%
    Draw 22.59%
AC MilanDrawMonza
2-1 @ 9.86% (0.102 0.1)
1-0 @ 9.57% (-0.628 -0.63)
2-0 @ 8.92% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-1 @ 6.12% (0.421 0.42)
3-0 @ 5.54% (0.31 0.31)
3-2 @ 3.38% (0.274 0.27)
4-1 @ 2.85% (0.352 0.35)
4-0 @ 2.58% (0.287 0.29)
4-2 @ 1.58% (0.214 0.21)
5-1 @ 1.06% (0.186 0.19)
5-0 @ 0.96% (0.158 0.16)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 55.06%
1-1 @ 10.58% (-0.54 -0.54)
2-2 @ 5.45% (0.129 0.13)
0-0 @ 5.14% (-0.682 -0.68)
3-3 @ 1.25% (0.117 0.12)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 22.59%
1-2 @ 5.85% (-0.22 -0.22)
0-1 @ 5.68% (-0.668 -0.67)
0-2 @ 3.14% (-0.322 -0.32)
1-3 @ 2.16% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.01% (0.074 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.16% (-0.102 -0.1)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 22.34%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Monza

AC Milan
86.3%
Draw
7.8%
Monza
5.9%
51
Head to Head
Feb 18, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 23
Monza
0-1
AC Milan
Messias (31')
Oct 22, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 11
AC Milan
4-1
Monza
Diaz (16', 41'), Origi (65'), Leao (84')
Ranocchia (70')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CInter Milan33275179186186
2AC Milan34217664392570
3Juventus341811547262165
4Bologna331711548262262
5Roma33177959392058
6Atalanta BCAtalanta321661059372254
7Lazio33164134235752
8Napoli331310105041949
9Fiorentina32138114536947
10Torino33111393129246
11Monza341111123644-844
12Genoa33912123540-539
13Lecce34812143149-1836
14CagliariCagliari33711153656-2032
15Hellas VeronaHellas Verona33710163144-1331
16FrosinoneFrosinone34710174363-2031
17Empoli3387182648-2231
18Udinese33416133150-1928
19SassuoloSassuolo3368193965-2626
RSalernitana3429232673-4715


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