Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 45.3%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.