Supercoppa Italiana | Semi-Finals

Jan 18, 2024 at 7pm UK

KSU Soccer Stadium

Napoli
3 - 0
Fiorentina

Simeone (22'), Zerbin (84', 86')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Biraghi (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Supercoppa Italiana clash between Napoli and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions

Last Game: Napoli 2-1 Salernitana
Saturday, January 13 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fiorentina

All competitions

Last Game: Fiorentina 2-2 Udinese
Sunday, January 14 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 48.59%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
Napoli	Draw	Fiorentina
48.59% ( 2.14)	24.2% ( -0.16)	27.21% ( -1.98)

Both teams to score 56.39% (

-0.93)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.36% (

-0.55)

45.64% (

0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.03% (

-0.53)

67.96% (

0.53)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.13% (

0.66)

18.87% (

-0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.66% (

1.09)

50.34% (

-1.09)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.5% (

-1.72)

30.49% (

1.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.29% (

-2.09)

66.71% (

2.09)

Score Analysis

Napoli 48.59%

Fiorentina 27.21%

Draw 24.2%

Napoli	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 9.6% ( 0.42) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 8% ( 0.51) 3-1 @ 5.28% ( 0.2) 3-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.37) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.2% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.19) 4-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.26% Total : 48.59%	1-1 @ 11.39% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.17) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.2%	0-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.35) 0-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.3) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.28) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.18) 0-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.2) Other @ 3.03% Total : 27.21%