Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 36.4%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.69%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (11.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.