Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 67.73%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 12.35%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.05%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.