Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 61.24%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Sassuolo had a probability of 18.61%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.95%) and 1-0 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Sassuolo win it was 1-2 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.