Primeira Liga | Gameweek 27

Mar 30, 2024 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
2 - 1
Farense

Esgaio (45+1', 45+1'), Cristo (68')
De Arruabarrena (55'), Trezza (78'), Moreira (90+1'), Galovic (90+4')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Duarte (88')
Caseres (49'), Mota (50'), Duarte (82')
Caseres (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and SC Farense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Moreirense 1-0 Arouca
Sunday, March 17 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

SC Farense

All competitions

Last Game: Farense 1-1 Rio Ave
Saturday, March 16 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 27.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Arouca in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arouca.

Result
Arouca	Draw	SC Farense
49.06% ( 0.21)	23.53% ( -0.05)	27.41% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 58.85% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.53% (

0.1)

42.46% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.13% (

0.1)

64.87% (

-0.1)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.53% (

0.12)

17.46% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.06% (

0.2)

47.94% (

-0.2)

SC Farense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.3% (

-0.06)

28.69% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.48% (

-0.08)

64.52% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Arouca 49.06%

SC Farense 27.41%

Draw 23.52%

Arouca	Draw	SC Farense
2-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.63% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.54% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.86% Total : 49.06%	1-1 @ 10.91% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.52%	1-2 @ 6.82% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.5% Total : 27.41%