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Europa League

Benfica
Europa League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 11, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Marseille

Benfica
2 - 1
Marseille

Silva (16'), di Maria (52')
Neres (18')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Aubameyang (67')

The Match

Match Report

Benfica secure a first-leg lead at home against Marseille in their Europa League quarter-final tie thanks to goals by Rafa Silva and Angel Di Maria in either half.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Benfica and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 Benfica
Saturday, April 6 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Marseille

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Lille 3-1 Marseille
Friday, April 5 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 60.49%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 18.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 1-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.85%), while for a Marseille win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Benfica in this match.

Result
BenficaDrawMarseille
60.49% (-0.012 -0.01)21.03% (0.0030000000000001 0)18.48% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Both teams to score 55.56% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.67% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)41.33% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.27% (-0.012 -0.01)63.72% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.76% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)13.24% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.98% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)40.01% (0.014000000000003 0.01)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.04% (0.0030000000000001 0)35.96% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.26% (0.0010000000000012 0)72.74% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    Benfica 60.49%
    Marseille 18.48%
    Draw 21.03%
BenficaDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 9.95%
2-0 @ 9.73%
1-0 @ 9.63% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 6.71% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 6.56% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-2 @ 3.43%
4-1 @ 3.39% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 3.32% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.73% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.37% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
5-0 @ 1.34% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.33%
Total : 60.49%
1-1 @ 9.85% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 5.09%
0-0 @ 4.76% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.17%
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 21.03%
1-2 @ 5.04% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 4.87% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 2.49% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 1.74% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 1.72% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.63%
Total : 18.48%

How you voted: Benfica vs Marseille

Benfica
78.5%
Draw
16.0%
Marseille
5.6%
144