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Europa League
Brighton logo
Europa League | Group Stage
Dec 14, 2023 at 8pm UK
The American Express Community Stadium
Marseille

Brighton
1 - 0
Marseille

Pedro (88')
Lallana (79'), Mitoma (84'), Pedro (89'), Steele (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Mbemba (75'), Ounahi (79'), Sarr (90+4')

The Match

Match Report

Brighton & Hove Albion secure top spot in Group B of the Europa League by beating Marseille thanks to a 88th-minute winner from Joao Pedro.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Brighton & Hove Albion and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brighton & Hove Albion

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Brighton 1-1 Burnley
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in Premier League

Marseille

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Lorient 2-4 Marseille
Sunday, December 10 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 51.01%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 26.06% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.

Result
Brighton & Hove AlbionDrawMarseille
51.01% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 22.92% (0.00099999999999767 0) 26.06% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Both teams to score 59.74%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.25% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)40.75%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.86% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)63.14% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Brighton & Hove Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.89% (-0.0050000000000097 -0.01)16.11% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.48% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)45.52% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.21% (0.0039999999999907 0)28.79% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.36% (0.007000000000005 0.01)64.64% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Brighton & Hove Albion 51.01%
    Marseille 26.06%
    Draw 22.92%
Brighton & Hove AlbionDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 9.63% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-0 @ 8.47%
2-0 @ 7.73% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 5.86% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 4.71% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 3.65%
4-1 @ 2.67% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 2.15% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-2 @ 1.67%
5-1 @ 0.98% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 51.01%
1-1 @ 10.54%
2-2 @ 5.99%
0-0 @ 4.64%
3-3 @ 1.51% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 22.92%
1-2 @ 6.56% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-1 @ 5.78% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-2 @ 3.6% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 2.72% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-3 @ 2.49% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.49% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.43%
Total : 26.06%

How you voted: Brighton vs Marseille

Brighton & Hove Albion
45.1%
Draw
24.2%
Marseille
30.8%
91
Head to Head
Oct 5, 2023 5.45pm
Group Stage
Marseille
2-2
Brighton
Mbemba (19'), Veretout (20')
Sarr (84'), Clauss (87'), Balerdi (89')
Gross (54'), Pedro (88' pen.)
Gross (55'), Dunk (83'), Veltman (84'), Ferguson (90+5')
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