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Europa League | Group Stage
Oct 26, 2023 at 8pm UK
The American Express Community Stadium
Ajax

Brighton
2 - 0
Ajax

Pedro (42'), Fati (53')
Mitoma (22'), Paul van Hecke (31')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Match Report

Brighton & Hove Albion beat Ajax 2-0 at the Amex Stadium to claim their first-ever victory in European competition.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Brighton & Hove Albion and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brighton & Hove Albion

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Man City 2-1 Brighton
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in Premier League

Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Utrecht 4-3 Ajax
Sunday, October 22 at 11.15am in Eredivisie

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 39.96%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 38.53% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (4.93%) and 2-3 (4.55%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 2-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.

Result
Brighton & Hove AlbionDrawAjax
38.53% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)21.51% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)39.96% (0.046000000000006 0.05)
Both teams to score 71.4% (-0.040000000000006 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.95% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)28.05% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
51.19% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)48.81% (0.064 0.06)
Brighton & Hove Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.23% (-0.043000000000006 -0.04)15.77% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.09% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)44.91% (0.079999999999998 0.08)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.78% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)15.22% (0.004999999999999 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.12% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)43.88% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Brighton & Hove Albion 38.53%
    Ajax 39.96%
    Draw 21.51%
Brighton & Hove AlbionDrawAjax
2-1 @ 7.71% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 4.75% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 4.47% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-0 @ 4.44% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.1%
3-0 @ 2.52% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 2.19% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.06% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-3 @ 1.29% (-0.004 -0)
4-0 @ 1.16% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.85%
Total : 38.53%
1-1 @ 8.35% (0.012 0.01)
2-2 @ 7.26% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 2.8% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 2.4% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 21.51%
1-2 @ 7.86% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.93% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 4.55% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-1 @ 4.52% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.26% (0.012 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.67% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
1-4 @ 2.32% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-4 @ 2.14% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-4 @ 1.32% (-0.002 -0)
0-4 @ 1.26% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 4.14%
Total : 39.96%

How you voted: Brighton vs Ajax

Brighton & Hove Albion
68.5%
Draw
13.4%
Ajax
18.1%
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