Europa League

Europa League | Group Stage

Oct 5, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis

AEK Athens
1 - 1
Ajax

Vida (74')
Vida (40'), Pineda (51'), Araujo (89'), Amrabat (90')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Bergwijn (30' pen.)
Brobbey (56'), Sutalo (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between AEK Athens and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AEK Athens

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: OFI Crete 2-0 AEK Athens
Monday, October 2 at 6pm in Greek Superleague

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: RKC Waalwijk 2-3 Ajax
Saturday, September 30 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 32.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.32%) and 0-2 (5.82%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 2-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
AEK Athens	Draw	Ajax
32.28% ( -2.57)	22.48% ( -0.18)	45.25% ( 2.75)

Both teams to score 65.93% (

-0.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.48% (

0.01)

34.52% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.55% (

0.01)

56.45% (

-0.01)

AEK Athens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.35% (

-1.34)

21.65% (

1.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.22% (

-2.09)

54.78% (

2.09)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.15% (

1.06)

15.85% (

-1.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.95% (

1.91)

45.05% (

-1.91)

Score Analysis

AEK Athens 32.28%

Ajax 45.25%

Draw 22.48%

AEK Athens	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.35) 1-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.22) 2-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.35) 3-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.35) 3-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.27) 4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.2) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.54% Total : 32.28%	1-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.82% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 3.43% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.48%	1-2 @ 8.91% ( 0.26) 0-1 @ 6.32% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 5.82% ( 0.4) 1-3 @ 5.47% ( 0.35) 2-3 @ 4.18% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.36) 1-4 @ 2.52% ( 0.24) 2-4 @ 1.93% ( 0.11) 0-4 @ 1.65% ( 0.22) 3-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 0.93% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.96% Total : 45.25%