Europa League

Europa League | Group Stage

Nov 30, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
4 - 3
Ajax

Aubameyang (9' pen., 47', 90+3' pen.), Mbemba (26')
Lodi (69'), Sarr (90')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Brobbey (10', 30'), Akpom (79')
Taylor (71'), Hlynsson (76'), Rensch (90+3'), Hato (90+8')
Berghuis (63')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Marseille and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Strasbourg 1-1 Marseille
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Ajax 5-0 Vitesse
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 36.57% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.92%) and 2-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Ajax
40.74%	22.69%	36.57% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 66.47% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.66% (

-0.01)

34.34% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.76% (

-0.01)

56.24%

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.46% (

-0)

17.54% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.93% (

-0)

48.07% (

-0)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.61% (

-0.01)

19.39% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.81% (

-0.01)

51.19% (

Score Analysis

Marseille 40.74%

Ajax 36.57%

Draw 22.69%

Marseille	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 8.45% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.92% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.15% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.9% 3-2 @ 4.02% 3-0 @ 2.99% 4-1 @ 2.13% 4-2 @ 1.75% 4-0 @ 1.3% 4-3 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 3.16% Total : 40.74%	1-1 @ 9.71% 2-2 @ 6.93% 0-0 @ 3.4% 3-3 @ 2.2% Other @ 0.44% Total : 22.69%	1-2 @ 7.97% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.58% 0-2 @ 4.58% 1-3 @ 4.36% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.79% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.5% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.79% 2-4 @ 1.56% 0-4 @ 1.03% ( -0) 3-4 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 2.53% Total : 36.57%