Eredivisie | Gameweek 10

Oct 29, 2023 at 1.30pm UK

Philips Stadion

PSV
5 - 2
Ajax

Lozano (20', 60', 72'), de Jong (49'), Saibari (52')
Saibari (90')

FT(HT: 1-2)

van den Boomen (10'), Brobbey (40')
Hato (13'), Bergwijn (62')

The Match

Match Report

Ajax sink to the bottom of the Eredivisie table after a 5-2 defeat at leaders and rivals PSV Eindhoven, who remain perfect this season after a 10th win from 10.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between PSV Eindhoven and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

PSV Eindhoven

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Lens 1-1 PSV
Tuesday, October 24 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Brighton 2-0 Ajax
Thursday, October 26 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 65.48%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 17.31% and a draw had a probability of 17.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.71%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (4.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.69%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.

Result
PSV Eindhoven	Draw	Ajax
65.48% ( 1.59)	17.2% ( -0.31)	17.31% ( -1.29)

Both teams to score 67.97% (

-1.53)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

75.43% (

-0.8)

24.56% (

0.8)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

55.65% (

-1.07)

44.35% (

1.06)

PSV Eindhoven Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.79% (

0.09)

7.21% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.84% (

0.23)

26.16% (

-0.24)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.25% (

-1.72)

26.74% (

1.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.98% (

-2.33)

62.02% (

2.33)

Score Analysis

PSV Eindhoven 65.48%

Ajax 17.31%

Draw 17.2%

PSV Eindhoven	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.41) 3-0 @ 5.85% ( 0.39) 3-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 5.07% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.29) 4-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.27) 4-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.09) 5-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.15) 5-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.04) 4-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.11) 6-1 @ 1.17% ( 0.04) Other @ 4.98% Total : 65.48%	1-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.21) 3-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.56% Total : 17.2%	1-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.22) 0-1 @ 2.54% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.08) Other @ 4.2% Total : 17.31%