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[monks data]
PSV
KNVB Beker | Final
Apr 17, 2022 at 5pm UK
Philips Stadium
Ajax

PSV
2 - 1
Ajax

Gutierrez (48'), Gakpo (50')
Max (63'), Teze (88'), Gotze (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Gravenberch (23')
Martinez (18'), Gravenberch (81')

Preview: PSV Eindhoven vs. Ajax - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's KNVB Beker clash between PSV Eindhoven and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

PSV Eindhoven and Ajax will momentarily put aside their Eredivisie title battle when they lock horns in the final of the KNVB Beker in Rotterdam on Sunday afternoon.

While Ajax will be looking to win the competition for the third time in four seasons, PSV will be competing in the final for the first time in nine years.


Match preview

PSV Eindhoven's Eran Zahavi celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on March 17, 2022© Reuters

PSV's 15-game unbeaten run across all competitions came to an end in the second leg of their Europa Conference League quarter-final on Thursday when they were beaten 2-1 at home against Leicester City, losing by the same scoreline on aggregate.

Israeli veteran Eran Zahavi scored his 17th goal of the season just before the half-hour mark to put the hosts in front, but two late second-half goals from James Maddison and Ricardo Pereira turned the game on its head and helped the Foxes advance to the last four.

Although PSV will be disappointed to have not reached the semi-finals, Roger Schmidt's men are now just one game away from lifting domestic silverware, and this weekend they will be vying to get their hands on the KNVB Beker for the first time since 2011-12.

PSV have already beaten Sunday's opponents Ajax in a domestic final this season, when they cruised to a 4-0 victory in the Dutch Super Cup back in August, with Noni Madueke (2), Yorbe Vertessen and Mario Gotze all on the scoresheet.

Schmidt's side, however, have since lost back-to-back games against Ajax in the Eredivisie, suffering a heavy 5-0 away defeat in October before losing 2-1 on home soil in January.

PSV have beaten Fortuna Sittard, Telstar, NAC Breda and Go Ahead Eagles on their route to the final, scoring at least twice on each occasion, but their biggest challenge will come this weekend as this will be their first match in the competition when they head in as the underdogs.

Ajax manager Erik ten Hag celebrates in November 2021© Reuters

Ajax head into Sunday's final after winning six of their last seven games across all competitions, including a slender 2-1 league win at home against Sparta Rotterdam last weekend.

Joeri de Kamps gave Sparta a surprise lead midway through the first half, but a strike from Davy Klaassen just four minutes after the break restored parity for the hosts, before Dusan Tadic converted from the penalty spot just after the hour mark, netting his 15th goal of the season, to hand Ajax all three points.

De Godenzonen remain in the driving seat to clinch their 28th Eredivisie title as they are still sitting at the top of the table, four points clear of PSV in second place with only five league games remaining.

While speculation remains rife regarding the future of head coach Erik ten Hag, who could reportedly be announced as the new Manchester United boss for next season after this weekend's final, the 52-year-old and his squad will be fully focussed on retaining their KNVB Beker crown.

The Dutch giants have enjoyed a comfortable route to this year's final, beating Barendrecht, Excelcior Maassluis, Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar by a combined scoreline of 20-0.

Ajax have only won the competition three times in the last 12 years, including twice in the last three seasons, but they will be confident of success on Sunday as they have only lost one of their last 10 meetings against PSV across all tournaments.

PSV Eindhoven KNVB Beker form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

PSV Eindhoven form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L

Ajax KNVB Beker form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Ajax form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W


Team News

Ajax's Dusan Tadic celebrates after they score their first goal on October 19, 2021© Reuters

PSV will be without key centre-back Olivier Boscagli due to a knee injury, while Madueke, Armando Obispo, Ryan Thomas and Phillipp Mwene are all minor doubts and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.

In the absence of Boscagli, Jordan Teze is set to start again in central defence alongside Andre Ramalho, joining full-backs Mauro Junior and Philipp Max in the back four.

Goalkeeper Joel Drommel has started all four games in this year's tournament and he will likely keep his place between the sticks ahead of Yvon Mvogo.

Gotze, Erick Gutierrez and Ibrahim Sangare are all expected to retain their places in centre-midfield, while in-demand forward Cody Gakpo – who has recorded 17 goals and 15 assists in 41 games this term – is set to start in a three-man attack along with Zahavi and Ritsu Doan.

As for Ajax, Brazilian forward Antony is ruled out with an ankle injury and left-back Nicolas Tagliafico is doubtful with a knock, but both Noussair Mazraoui and Lisandro Martinez have recovered from muscle problems and will be in contention to feature this weekend.

The return of Mazraoui at right-back will likely see Jurrien Timber move back to the centre of defence alongside Martinez, while Daley Blind is set to continue at left-back.

After over seven months out with a groin injury, goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg was named on the bench for last weekend's win over Sparta, and now that the 39-year-old has returned to full fitness, Ten Hag may decide to start the veteran ahead of Andre Onana.

After scoring in both of his last two starts, Davy Klaassen could retain his place in centre-midfield alongside ever-present duo Ryan Gravenberch and Edson Alvarez.

Ten Hag faces a dilemma over whether to start Sebastien Haller or Danilo as his central striker; the former has scored 33 goals in 37 appearances across all competitions this season, while the latter is the top scorer in this year's KNVB Beker with six strikes from just three games.

PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Drommel; Junior, Teze, Ramalho, Max; Sangare, Gutierrez; Doan, Gotze, Gakpo; Zahavi

Ajax possible starting lineup:
Stekelenburg; Mazraoui, Timber, Martinez, Blind; Gravenberch, Alvarez, Klaassen; Tadic, Haller, Berghuis


SM words green background

We say: PSV Eindhoven 1-3 Ajax

With both PSV and Ajax looking vulnerable in defence in recent weeks, goals are to be expected this weekend. Five of the last six meetings between these two sides have seen at least three goals scored.

Another thrilling showdown between arguably the two strongest Dutch sides at present is set to take place, but considering the success that Ajax have recently had over PSV, we can see Ten Hag's men outscoring their opponents and retaining their crown.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.48%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.26%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: PSV vs Ajax

PSV Eindhoven
21.8%
Draw
16.4%
Ajax
61.8%
55
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Ajax manager Erik ten Hag celebrates in November 2021
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