Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 59.56%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 23.2% and a draw had a probability of 17.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.65%) and 3-2 (5.97%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (4.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.