Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.41%. A win for Rangers had a probability of 34.63% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.47%) and 0-2 (5.62%). The likeliest Rangers win was 2-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.