Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Sep 13, 2022 at 8pm UK

Anfield

Liverpool
2 - 1
Ajax

Salah (17'), Matip (89')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Kudus (27')

Reaction

Liverpool's Joel Matip celebrates scoring their second goal with Virgil van Dijk and Fabinho on September 13, 2022

Joel Matip earns Liverpool last-gasp win over Ajax

Joel Matip scores an 89th-minute winner to hand Liverpool a much-needed 2-1 victory over Ajax, getting their Champions League Group A campaign up and running.

Sep 13, 20:57

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Liverpool

Last Six:

Last Game: Napoli 4-1 Liverpool
Wednesday, September 7 at 8pm in Champions League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
6	Chelsea	6	-1	10
7	Liverpool	6	9	9
8	Brentford	6	6	9

Ajax

Last Six:

Last Game: Ajax 5-0 Heerenveen
Saturday, September 10 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ajax	6	18	18
2	Feyenoord	6	12	16
3	PSV Eindhoven	6	17	15

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 48.11%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 27.34% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Ajax win was 0-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.

Result
Liverpool	Draw	Ajax
48.11% ( 0.05)	24.54% ( -0.04)	27.34% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 55.37% (

0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.97% (

0.16)

47.03% (

-0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.72% (

0.15)

69.27% (

-0.15)

Liverpool Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.39% (

0.08)

19.61% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.44% (

0.13)

51.56% (

-0.13)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.88% (

0.07)

31.12% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.56% (

0.09)

67.44% (

-0.09)

Score Analysis

Liverpool 48.11%

Ajax 27.34%

Draw 24.54%

Liverpool	Draw	Ajax
1-0 @ 9.94% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.13% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.4% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.09% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.99% Total : 48.11%	1-1 @ 11.6% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.1% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.52% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.54%	0-1 @ 7.12% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.77% 0-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.62% ( -0) Other @ 2.88% Total : 27.34%