Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 52.06%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 24.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (8.69%). The likeliest Napoli win was 1-0 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.