Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 5

Sep 3, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
1 - 2
Napoli

Zaccagni (4')
Milinkovic-Savic (67'), Anderson (70'), Cataldi (70'), Sarri (90'), Marusic (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Min-jae (38'), Kvaratskhelia (61')
Spalletti (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Lazio and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

Last Six:

Last Game: Sampdoria 1-1 Lazio
Wednesday, August 31 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
6	AC Milan	4	4	8
7	Lazio	4	3	8
8	Torino	4	0	7

Napoli

Last Six:

Last Game: Napoli 1-1 Lecce
Wednesday, August 31 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
3	Inter Milan	4	4	9
4	Napoli	4	7	8
5	Juventus	4	5	8

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (8.37%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-0 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Napoli
27.75% ( 0.3)	25.74% ( 0.6)	46.51% ( -0.91)

Both teams to score 51.87% (

-1.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.23% (

-2.28)

51.77% (

2.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.46% (

-2.01)

73.53% (

2.01)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.7% (

-0.96)

33.29% (

0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.09% (

-1.08)

69.91% (

1.07)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.75% (

-1.35)

22.24% (

1.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.32% (

-2.06)

55.67% (

2.06)

Score Analysis

Lazio 27.75%

Napoli 46.51%

Draw 25.74%

Lazio	Draw	Napoli
1-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.52) 2-1 @ 6.73% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.43% Total : 27.75%	1-1 @ 12.24% ( 0.3) 0-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.65) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.22) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.74%	0-1 @ 11.13% ( 0.56) 1-2 @ 9.2% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 8.37% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 4.61% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 4.19% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.22) 1-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.18) 0-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.12) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.21% Total : 46.51%