Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 12, 2022 at 5.45pm UK

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli
4 - 2
Ajax

Lozano (4'), Raspadori (16'), Kvaratskhelia (62' pen.), Osimhen (90')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Klaassen (49'), Bergwijn (83' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Napoli and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Cremonese 1-4 Napoli
Sunday, October 9 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Volendam 2-4 Ajax
Saturday, October 8 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 38.25% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.73%) and 0-2 (4.89%). The likeliest Napoli win was 2-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
Napoli	Draw	Ajax
38.25% ( -0.16)	22.66% ( 0.01)	39.09% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 66.73% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.94% (

-0.08)

34.06% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.07% (

-0.09)

55.93% (

0.09)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.51% (

-0.11)

18.49% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.29% (

-0.18)

49.71% (

0.18)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.88% (

0.03)

18.13% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.92% (

0.05)

49.08% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Napoli 38.25%

Ajax 39.09%

Draw 22.66%

Napoli	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.66% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.77% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.69% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.81% Total : 38.25%	1-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.96% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.66%	1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.73% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 4.7% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.96% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.01% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.69% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) 3-4 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.94% Total : 39.09%