/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fnaplog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fajalog.png)
-
Hirving Lozano
4'
-
Giacomo Raspadori
16'
-
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
62'
-
Victor Osimhen
90'
-
Davy Klaassen
49'
-
Steven Bergwijn
83'
Napoli vs Ajax - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F22%2F40%2Fgiacomo-raspadori.jpeg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 38.25% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.73%) and 0-2 (4.89%). The likeliest Napoli win was 2-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
Result
Napoli
38.25%
▼
(-0.17)
Draw
22.66%
▲
(+0.02)
Ajax
39.09%
▲
(+0.15)
Both Teams to Score:
66.73%
▼
(-0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5
65.94%
▼
(-0.08)
Under 2.5
34.06%
▲
(+0.08)
Over 3.5
44.07%
▼
(-0.10)
Under 3.5
55.93%
▲
(+0.09)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5
81.51%
▼
(-0.11)
Under 0.5
18.49%
▲
(+0.11)
Over 1.5
50.29%
▼
(-0.19)
Under 1.5
49.71%
▲
(+0.18)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5
81.88%
▲
(+0.03)
Under 0.5
18.13%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 1.5
50.92%
▲
(+0.06)
Under 1.5
49.08%
▼
(-0.06)
Score analysis
Napoli
38.25%
Draw
22.66%
Ajax
39.09%
Napoli
2-1
@
8.15%
▼
(-0.02)
1-0 @ 5.66% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 4.77% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.59% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 3.92% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 2.69% ▼ (-0.02)
4-1 @ 1.94% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.65% ▼ (-0.02)
4-0 @ 1.13% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.76%
Total : 38.25%
1-0 @ 5.66% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 4.77% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.59% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 3.92% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 2.69% ▼ (-0.02)
4-1 @ 1.94% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.65% ▼ (-0.02)
4-0 @ 1.13% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.76%
Total : 38.25%
Draw
1-1
@
9.66%
▲
(+0.02)
2-2 @ 6.96% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 3.35% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 2.23% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 22.66%
2-2 @ 6.96% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 3.35% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 2.23% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 22.66%
Ajax
1-2
@
8.25%
▲
(+0.03)
0-1 @ 5.73% ▲ (+0.03)
0-2 @ 4.89% ▲ (+0.03)
1-3 @ 4.7% ▲ (+0.02)
2-3 @ 3.96% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 2.78% ▲ (+0.02)
1-4 @ 2.01% ▲ (+0.01)
2-4 @ 1.69% ▲ (+0.01)
0-4 @ 1.19% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.9%
Total : 39.09%
0-1 @ 5.73% ▲ (+0.03)
0-2 @ 4.89% ▲ (+0.03)
1-3 @ 4.7% ▲ (+0.02)
2-3 @ 3.96% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 2.78% ▲ (+0.02)
1-4 @ 2.01% ▲ (+0.01)
2-4 @ 1.69% ▲ (+0.01)
0-4 @ 1.19% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.9%
Total : 39.09%