Eredivisie | Gameweek 11

Nov 5, 2023 at 3.45pm UK

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax
4 - 1
Heerenveen

Bergwijn (25'), Brobbey (42'), Akpom (84', 90+2')
van den Boomen (60')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Brouwers (45+1')
van Amersfoort (40'), Olsson (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and Heerenveen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ajax 2-0 Volendam
Thursday, November 2 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Heerenveen

All competitions

Last Game: Heerenveen 3-0 Heracles
Saturday, October 28 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 62.73%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 17.97%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.53%) and 1-0 (7.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.58%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Heerenveen
62.73% ( 0.22)	19.29% ( 0.05)	17.97% ( -0.27)

Both teams to score 60.9% (

-0.75)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.09% (

-0.72)

33.91% (

0.72)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.24% (

-0.82)

55.76% (

0.82)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.62% (

-0.15)

10.38% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.1% (

-0.35)

33.9% (

0.35)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.96% (

-0.72)

32.04% (

0.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.49% (

-0.82)

68.51% (

0.83)

Score Analysis

Ajax 62.73%

Heerenveen 17.97%

Draw 19.29%

Ajax	Draw	Heerenveen
2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.21) 1-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 7.33% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 4.15% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.04) Other @ 4.23% Total : 62.73%	1-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 3.33% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.28% Total : 19.29%	1-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.79% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 2.15% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.21% Total : 17.97%