Primeira Liga | Gameweek 3

Aug 25, 2024 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
1 - 0
Nacional

Araujo (27')
Rodrigues (74'), Mantl (90+7')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Garcia (22'), Butzke (49'), Esteves (73'), Reis (76'), Vitor (90+3'), Dias (90+6'), Margarido (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Moreirense 3-1 Arouca
Sunday, August 18 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Nacional

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Nacional 1-6 Sporting Lisbon
Saturday, August 17 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 31.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Nacional
42.46% ( -0.12)	26.13% ( -0.21)	31.41% ( 0.33)

Both teams to score 52.67% (

0.79)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.33% (

0.96)

51.67% (

-0.96)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.55% (

0.82)

73.45% (

-0.83)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.87% (

0.36)

24.13% (

-0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.57% (

0.51)

58.43% (

-0.52)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.42% (

0.71)

30.57% (

-0.72)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.19% (

0.84)

66.8% (

-0.84)

Score Analysis

Arouca 42.45%

Nacional 31.41%

Draw 26.12%

Arouca	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 10.48% ( -0.29) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 4.19% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.48% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.73% Total : 42.45%	1-1 @ 12.42% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.38% ( -0.29) 2-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.12%	0-1 @ 8.74% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.37% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.1% Total : 31.41%