Primeira Liga | Gameweek 2

Aug 18, 2024 at 3.30pm UK

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Moreirense
3 - 1
Arouca

Nlavo (9'), Alan (45+2' pen.), Madson (65')
Ofori (59')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Simao (3')
Quaresma (74'), Faria Camara Lamba (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Moreirense and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Moreirense

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Farense 1-2 Moreirense
Sunday, August 11 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Arouca 0-1 Guimaraes
Monday, August 12 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.58%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.

Result
Moreirense	Draw	Arouca
42.58% ( 0.24)	26.38% ( 0.07)	31.03% ( -0.31)

Both teams to score 51.74% (

-0.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.2% (

-0.39)

52.8% (

0.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.57% (

-0.33)

74.42% (

0.34)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.43% (

-0.05)

24.57% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.94% (

-0.07)

59.05% (

0.08)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.59% (

-0.41)

31.4% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.22% (

-0.48)

67.78% (

0.49)

Score Analysis

Moreirense 42.58%

Arouca 31.04%

Draw 26.38%

Moreirense	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 4.12% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.39% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.59% Total : 42.58%	1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.72% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.38%	0-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.89% Total : 31.04%