Primeira Liga | Gameweek 34

May 18, 2024 at 6pm UK

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Moreirense
2 - 1
Estoril

Mingotti (5'), Franco (66')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Carlos (49')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Moreirense and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Moreirense

All competitions

Last Game: Casa Pia 0-1 Moreirense
Sunday, May 12 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Last Game: Estoril 0-1 Sporting Lisbon
Saturday, May 11 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 38.61%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 36.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (8.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.

Result
Moreirense	Draw	Estoril Praia
38.61% ( -1.36)	25.37% ( -0.38)	36.02% ( 1.74)

Both teams to score 56.4% (

1.56)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.61% (

1.9)

47.39% (

-1.9)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.4% (

1.74)

69.6% (

-1.73)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.81% (

0.14)

24.19% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.48% (

0.2)

58.52% (

-0.2)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.39% (

1.93)

25.61% (

-1.92)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.51% (

2.55)

60.49% (

-2.55)

Score Analysis

Moreirense 38.61%

Estoril Praia 36.02%

Draw 25.36%

Moreirense	Draw	Estoril Praia
1-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.68) 2-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 6.24% ( -0.45) 3-1 @ 4.02% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 2.95% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.93% Total : 38.61%	1-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 6.19% ( -0.51) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.36%	0-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 8.16% ( 0.28) 0-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 3.7% ( 0.32) 2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.24) 0-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.21) 1-4 @ 1.26% ( 0.17) Other @ 3.47% Total : 36.02%