Primeira Liga | Gameweek 4

Aug 31, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Jose Alvalade

Sporting Lisbon
2 - 0
Porto

Gyokeres (72' pen.), Catamo (90+3')
Catamo (28')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Varela (30'), Gonzalez (54'), Otavio (69'), Loader (70'), Eustaquio (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Farense 0-5 Sporting Lisbon
Friday, August 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Porto 2-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, August 24 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 57.49%. A win for Porto had a probability of 22.66% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.99%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (5.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Porto
57.49% ( -0.5)	19.85% ( 0.1)	22.66% ( 0.4)

Both teams to score 67.05% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

70.52% (

0.02)

29.47% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

49.44% (

0.02)

50.56% (

-0.02)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.63% (

-0.12)

10.36% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.15% (

-0.27)

33.85% (

0.26)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.8% (

0.32)

25.19% (

-0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.07% (

0.44)

59.93% (

-0.44)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 57.49%

Porto 22.66%

Draw 19.85%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Porto
2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 6.71% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.07% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.87% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.04) 4-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.58% Total : 57.49%	1-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 2.61% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.49% Total : 19.85%	1-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 2.48% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.3% Total : 22.66%