Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 79.9%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 7.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.91%) and 1-0 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.16%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (2.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.