Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 19

Jan 28, 2024 at 4.05pm UK

Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Toulouse
0 - 2
Lens

Martinez (37'), Donnum (40'), Nicolaisen (45'), Suazo (49')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Costa (42'), Diouf (55')
Said (36'), Haidara (83'), Sotoca (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Rouen 3-3 Toulouse (12-11 pen.)
Sunday, January 21 at 4.30pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lens

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lens 0-2 PSG
Sunday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lens have won five in a row against Toulouse, including in the reverse fixture back in September when Guilavogui scored a late winner, and they are now looking more like the side that gatecrashed the top three last season. Toulouse's confidence may be extremely fragile after being the slain giants in the cup last week, and their position in the Ligue 1 table does not lie, as another difficult fixture awaits. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 45.97%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.

Result
Toulouse	Draw	Lens
28.34% ( -0.02)	25.69% ( 0)	45.97% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 52.42% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.76% (

-0.01)

51.24% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.92% (

-0.01)

73.07% (

0.01)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.44% (

-0.02)

32.56% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.9% (

-0.03)

69.1% (

0.02)

Lens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.73% (

22.27% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.29% (

0.01)

55.71% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Toulouse 28.34%

Lens 45.97%

Draw 25.69%

Toulouse	Draw	Lens
1-0 @ 8.14% 2-1 @ 6.86% ( -0) 2-0 @ 4.56% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.56% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.71% ( -0) Other @ 2.59% Total : 28.34%	1-1 @ 12.22% 0-0 @ 7.25% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.69%	0-1 @ 10.89% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.18% ( 0) 0-2 @ 8.18% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.6% ( 0) 0-3 @ 4.1% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.73% 0-4 @ 1.54% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.22% Total : 45.97%