Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 52.76%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Albania had a probability of 21.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for an Albania win it was 0-1 (7.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.