Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Monaco win was 1-2 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.