European Championship | Group Stage
Jun 24, 2024 at 8pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Croatia1 - 1Italy
Reaction
![Croatia's Luka Modric applauds the fans after the match on June 24, 2024 [IMAGO]](https://sm.imgix.net/11/29/1x1.gif?w=1&h=1 "Croatia's Luka Modric applauds the fans after the match on June 24, 2024 [IMAGO]")
Luka Modric makes European Championship history with goal in painful Croatia draw
Luka Modric sets a new European Championship record after scoring in Croatia's excruciating 1-1 draw with Group B rivals Italy at the Red Bull Arena in Leipzig on Monday.
Jun 25, 11:58
Luciano Spalletti defends tactics after 'timid' Italy display in Croatia draw
Luciano Spalletti defends his tactics and hits out at his Italy players who were 'below their usual level' in a last-gasp 1-1 draw with Croatia at Euro 2024 on Monday.
Jun 25, 12:20
Euro 2024: Croatia eliminated from European Championship in group stage
Croatia's elimination from Euro 2024 in the group stage is confirmed, with Monday's 1-1 draw against Italy proving to be incredibly damaging.
Jun 26, 10:32
The Match
Match Report
Italy strike in the last minute of added time to hold Croatia to a 1-1 draw and make the last 16 of Euro 2024, finishing second in Group B.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Monday's European Championship clash between Croatia and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Croatia could line up for Monday's Euro 2024 clash with Italy.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Croatia 2-2 Albania
Wednesday, June 19 at 2pm in European Championship
Wednesday, June 19 at 2pm in European Championship
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Spain | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Italy | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Albania | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Croatia | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 36.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Croatia | Draw | Italy |
36.78% ( 0.15) | 25.48% ( -0.02) | 37.74% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 56.05% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
