Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 76.35%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 7.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.96%) and 3-0 (11.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.

Result
Italy	Draw	Venezuela
76.35% ( 0.02)	15.69% ( -0.01)	7.96% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 41.87% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.3% (

-0.01)

42.7% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.9% (

-0.01)

65.1% (

0.01)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.59% (

9.42% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.34% (

0.01)

31.66% (

-0.01)

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.22% (

-0.03)

53.78% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.86% (

-0.02)

87.14% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Italy 76.34%

Venezuela 7.96%

Draw 15.69%

Italy	Draw	Venezuela
2-0 @ 14.13% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 11.96% 3-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.77% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.91% ( -0) 4-0 @ 6.58% ( 0) 4-1 @ 4.08% ( -0) 5-0 @ 3.11% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.93% 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.22% ( 0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 76.34%	1-1 @ 7.42% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.06% ( 0) 2-2 @ 2.72% ( -0) Other @ 0.49% Total : 15.69%	0-1 @ 3.14% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.3% ( -0) 0-2 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 1.54% Total : 7.96%